Interannual weather variability reshapes Europe’s cost-optimal hydrogen supply strategy

This is the authors' abstract. We don't add key points for this paper.

The design of the future European energy system depends heavily on how Europe balances its domestic hydrogen production against its reliance on imports. This study reveals that neither extreme—full self-sufficiency nor complete reliance on imports—is economically optimal through 2050. Using a high-resolution energy system model accounting for interannual weather variability, we find import cost thresholds favoring green domestic production decrease from €90/MWh (2030) to €75/MWh (2050). However, weather can shift the optimal import share by up to 60% points at constant prices. Strategies with a high import share minimize the need for domestic renewable energy and electrolyzers but require significant investment in long-distance transportation, backup electricity capacity, and storage. Conversely, achieving full self-sufficiency demands massive domestic infrastructure, including around 1,300 GW of electrolysis by 2050. These findings highlight the critical need for diversified hydrogen strategies that balance cost, system flexibility, and energy sovereignty.