Key result
Poliovirus surveillance sensitivity drops near elimination, and second stool specimens improve it only under specific conditions.
Why the study?
A theoretical framework is needed to understand factors affecting the sensitivity of surveillance systems to detect wild poliovirus in populations with circulating virus.
Population
General populations with circulating wild poliovirus
Comparison
Surveillance sensitivity with and without a second stool specimen
Design
Theoretical mathematical modeling study
Authors
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Surveillance sensitivity declines near poliovirus elimination, warranting caution; modeling leaves open when second stool specimens add value.
Theoretical modeling demonstrates that as poliovirus elimination nears, surveillance sensitivity drops below the case-to-infection ratio, and a second stool specimen only adds value in specific low-sensitivity settings.
Gary et al. (1997) studied Poliovirus. Surveillance for detecting wild poliovirus was evaluated on Population sensitivity of surveillance. As a region nears poliovirus elimination, population surveillance sensitivity falls below the case-to-infection ratio, and a second stool specimen only substantially improves sensitivity under specific conditions.
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