Key result
Playing over ~11 NFL seasons is associated with longer survival due to dominant survivorship bias.
Why the study?
Little information exists about the long-term mortality risk and its association with career playing statistics among NFL players.
Is there an association between NFL seasons-played, position, and age-at-death among deceased NFL players?
Observational (n=6,408)
Is there an association between NFL seasons-played, position, and age-at-death among deceased NFL players?
Effect estimate: F-statistic = 9.95
p-value: p=0.0016
Accounting for survivorship bias and the healthy worker effect is necessary to adequately describe mortality risk among NFL players, revealing a positive association between age-at-death and seasons played beyond approximately 10.7 seasons.
Survivorship bias must be addressed in NFL mortality analyses; leaves open net effects of career length on longevity.
In general, National Football League (NFL) players tend to live longer than the general population. However, little information exists about the long-term mortality risk in this population. Frequent, yet mild, head trauma may be associated with early mortality in this group of elite athletes. Therefore, career playing statistics can be used as a proxy for frequent head trauma. Using data from Pro Football Reference, we analyzed the association between age-at-death, position, and NFL seasons-played among 6,408 NFL players that were deceased as of July 1, 2018. The linear regression model allowing for a healthy worker effect demonstrated the best fit statistics (F-statistic = 9.95, p-value = 0.0016). The overall association of age-at-death and seasons-played is positive beginning at the 10.75 and 10.64 seasons-played point in our two models that feature seasons-played and seasons-played squared as explanatory variables. Previous research that does not account for this survivorship bias/healthy worker effect may not adequately describe mortality risk among NFL players.
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Ehrlich et al. (2020) conducted an observational in Mortality (n=6,408). NFL seasons-played vs. Fewer seasons played was evaluated on Age-at-death residual (F-statistic = 9.95, p=0.0016). The overall association of age-at-death and NFL seasons-played becomes positive beginning at 10.75 seasons, demonstrating a survivorship bias that dominates play-related mortality risk.
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