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September 18, 2026Irrigation and Drainage

Estimating Rice Transplanting Dates and Projected Shifts under Climate Change in Japan with the Use of Sentinel‐1 Imagery and CMIP6 Scenarios

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Authors

TNTakanori NaganoYSYueying SuiNYNatsuki Yoshikawa

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Overview

Satellite modeling reveals substantial future delays in rice transplanting dates across Japan under climate change, highlighting the need for adaptive crop scheduling.

Key Points

  • To detect rice transplanting dates using satellite radar imagery and project future shifts in planting schedules under climate change scenarios in Japan.
  • Analyzed time-series Sentinel-1 Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery to identify transplanting dates based on sharp backscatter coefficient drops during paddy ponding in Hyogo and Niigata Prefectures.
  • Validated satellite-derived transplanting dates against ground-truth survey records from local agricultural corporations and cooperatives.
  • Projected future changes in transplanting schedules through the end of the 21st century using CMIP6 climate models under the RCP 8.5 emissions scenario.
  • Satellite-derived transplanting date estimations achieved a Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) of 9.8 days for Hyogo and 6.2 days for Niigata.
  • CMIP6 RCP 8.5 projections indicate future transplanting dates will be delayed by an average of 35 days in Hyogo and 74 days in Niigata by the end of the 21st century.
  • Projected planting delays were disproportionately greater in higher-elevation and colder agricultural regions.

Cite This Study

Nagano et al. (2026) studied this question.

synapsesocial.com/papers/6aad0b72de0393d728b89c19https://doi.org/10.1002/ird.70222
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Also Consider

Synapse has enriched 5 closely related papers on similar clinical questions. Consider them for comparative context:

  1. 1Assessing and predicting the challenges and uncertainties of rice cultivation in Toyama prefecture, Japan2026
  2. 2Cultivar-specific methane emissions and yield-scaled greenhouse gas intensity responses to transplanting date: a case study in South Korea2026
  3. 3Assessment of planting date adjustments on irrigation water demand under future climate change scenarios in Taiwan2026
  4. 4Application of climate change projections in drainage project planning for agricultural infrastructure in Japan2024
  5. 5Multi-sensor analysis of variability in rice transplanting dates in smallholder rice production systems in South Asia2024