Assessing the impacts of climate change on photovoltaic energy generation in Colombia using 3-hourly CMIP6 projections

Understanding how climate change will affect renewable energy systems is becoming increasingly important as countries accelerate their transition away from fossil fuels. Although photovoltaic (PV) energy is expected to be a key part of this transition, its long-term efficiency may be affected by changes in weather factors. In this study, we assess the impacts of climate change on PV energy generation in Colombia using statistically downscaled climate projections and a physically based PV panel model. Projections of weather-related variables (solar radiation and air temperature) are generated at 3-hourly resolution, providing a novel framework for understanding intra-day photovoltaic performance under future climate conditions. Future scenarios are based on three CMIP6 global climate models (GFDL-ESM4, MRI-ESM2-0, and BCC-CSM2-MR) and two emission pathways (SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5). PV generation is estimated using a historical baseline (1994–2014) and compared with a mid-century period (2051–2060) to evaluate annual, monthly, and intra-day changes in PV potential. Results show spatially heterogeneous but overall modest changes in PV energy generation across Colombia, mainly driven by projected variations in solar radiation, while temperature-related efficiency losses have a smaller impact. Monthly analyses reveal substantial seasonal variations that are not apparent when considering annual averages alone. An assessment of temperature-only effects indicates that warming alone leads to small but consistent reductions in PV output under the SSP5-8.5 scenario.