Use of Tenofovir Diphosphate Levels to Predict Viremia During the Postpartum Period in Women Living With Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV): A Nested Case-Control Study

BACKGROUND: There are few data on the utility of tenofovir diphosphate (TFV-DP) in dried blood spots (DBSs) to predict future viral load (VL) in postpartum women with HIV on antiretroviral therapy (ART). METHODS: We conducted a nested case-control study within a trial of postpartum ART delivery strategies. Participants started ART containing tenofovir disoproxil fumarate (TDF) in pregnancy, were <10 weeks postpartum, and had a VL <400 copies/mL. VL and TFV-DP samples were taken every 3-6 months over 24 months. Cases had ≥1 VL ≥20 copies/mL; controls were randomly sampled from women with persistent viral suppression (VS; VL <20 copies/mL). Generalized estimating equations were used to calculate likelihood odds ratios (LORs) for future VL ≥20 copies/mL by TFV-DP concentration at the preceding visit. RESULTS: 61 cases and 20 controls contributed 365 DBS-VL pairs (median ART duration, 16 months). Sensitivity and specificity of TFV-DP <700 fmol/punch to detect future viremia were 62.9% (95% CI, 54.7-70.6%) and 89.7% (84.9-93.4%), respectively. Adjusting for age, ART duration, previous VL, and duration between the TFV-DP and VL measures, LORs of viremia for TFV-DP concentrations 350-699 and <350 fmol/punch versus TFV-DP ≥1850 fmol/punch were 3.5 (95% CI, 1.1-10.8; P = .033) and 12.9 (3.6-46.6; P < .0001), respectively. Including only samples taken during VS, the LOR of future viremia for TFV-DP concentration <350 fmol/punch versus TFV-DP ≥1850 fmol/punch was 9.5 (1.9-47.0). CONCLUSIONS: TFV-DP concentrations in DBSs were strongly associated with future viremia and appear useful to identify nonadherence and predict future elevated VL.