Variability and predictability of bush fire in Guinea on inter-annual and multi-year timescales based on NDVI-MODIS datasets analysis

This study investigates the variability and the predictability of bush fire on inter-annual and multi-year timescales in Guinea (latitudes 7° 05 and 12° 51 N and longitudes 7° 30 and 15° 10 W). Using Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) with a spatial resolution of 231 m × 231 m and 16 days composite temporal resolution between 2001 and 2016, two brush fire hazard indices are calculated based on the NDVI variability. Results show that both indices could be considered as good indicators of NDVI deficiency corresponding to the drought of vegetation. Multiple linear regression model using these risk indices as predictors and burned areas as predictands has shown a non-significant model skill of 0.33 (lower than the significant threshold equals to 0.42), at the inter-annual scale, while at the multi-year timescale (>5 years), the model’s skill rise up to 0.89. These indices can therefore be used as predictors of Guinea burned areas on multi-year timescale. This novel finding improved our understanding on the forecasting of burned area in Guinea, and could therefore help for successful adaptation strategies.