Key result
Japanese cancer patients with comorbid CVD are projected to peak at ~313,000 by 2034.
Why the study?
The number of cancer patients in Japan is rising, and the burden of comorbid cardiovascular disease in this population needs to be anticipated for future resource planning.
Observational (n=3,081,680)
No
The projected increase in cancer patients with comorbid cardiovascular disease highlights the growing need for cardio-oncology resources and concurrent management strategies in Japan.
May warrant expanded cardio-oncology resources in Japan; extends demographic projections but leaves open optimal care models.
BACKGROUND: The number of cancer patients in Japan is estimated to rise to 3.5 million by 2025. The disease burden may be further complicated by comorbidities caused by cardiovascular disease (CVD). Predicting the number of cancer patients with CVD can help anticipate future resource needs. METHODS: We used statistics derived from the Niigata Cancer Center CVD Study (2015) as well as population estimates from the National Cancer Center's Cancer Registry and Statistics survey of 2017 for convenience. We simply multiplied the projected number of cancer patients through the year 2039 by the CVD prevalence in 2015, with patients classified by sex, age, and cancer type to estimate the number of cancer patients with CVD. RESULTS: The total number of Japanese cancer patients with CVD was 253,000 in 2015 and is predicted to increase rapidly by 30,000 in 2020 and peak at 313,000 in 2030-2034. Men will dominate the CVD population at 2.5-fold the number of women. The growth rate of the population with both cancer and CVD will be greater than that of the cancer-only population (1.23 vs 1.18, P < 0.001), and will comprise notably high proportions of patients with prostatic, breast, and uterine cancers (1.80, 1.57, and 1.66, P < 0.001, respectively). CONCLUSION: Future cancer patients will be older and more likely to have CVD. Although men will continue to dominate this population, the increase in the number of women will be pronounced. Cancer care providers should be trained to recognize CVD and provide any necessary interventions concurrently with cancer therapy.
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Okura et al. (2019) conducted an observational in Cancer and Cardiovascular Disease (n=3,081,680). Future time period (2035-2039) vs. Baseline time period (2015-2019) was evaluated on Growth rate and odds of CVD comorbidity in cancer patients (2035-2039 vs 2015-2019) (OR 1.05, 95% CI 1.04-1.05, p=<0.001). The number of Japanese cancer patients with cardiovascular disease is projected to increase from 253,000 in 2015 to a peak of 313,000 in 2030–2034, with the growth rate of the comorbid population significantly exceeding that of the cancer-only population.
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