Candidate deviation and partisan loyalty: Policy divergence, moral failures, and American voter behavior

Partisanship is the strongest cue in voting behavior in the United States, providing a powerful signal to voters about which candidates to support. This study examines what it takes to dissuade partisans from supporting their party's candidate and what form dissent might take. Using policy and moral deviations, we test the limits of partisan loyalty through two experiments. First, a conjoint study shows that policy deviations and moral failures can reduce the likelihood of a vote for partisan candidates. Then, an online campaign simulation replicates these results and permits a closer examination of how dissent emerges. We find that a combination of policy divergence and moral failures can lead partisans to abandon their party's candidate. We also find that partisans are more likely to abstain from voting in these instances rather than defect to the other party. Only in the most severe cases do deviations convince some subjects to cast a vote for the other party's candidate.