The impact of online prices on marketplaces on people's inflation expectations

This paper examines the impact of domestic marketplace prices on the population's inflation expectations. The analysis is based on a comparison of price movements on Wildberries, Ozon, and Yandex Market with official Rosstat data, using the APET dataset on the MPStats platform for 2023-2026. Particular attention is paid to how discrepancies between online prices and the consumer price index (CPI) influence the population's perception of inflation. InFOM survey data revealed a persistent gap between actual price movements and consumer expectations. The findings suggest that marketplaces do not cover the entire consumer basket; their data can provide early signals of disinflationary trends in certain product categories, but is not yet able to accurately reflect the population's inflation expectations. This opens the door to a more flexible regulatory communications policy and increased public trust in official statistics.