Deciphering retention pathways through HR analytics: SEM based serial mediation and multi-group analysis

Purpose This study explores the relationship between human resource analytics (HRA) and employee retention, examining the mediating roles of employee engagement (EE) and well-being (WB) in the Indian fast moving consumer goods sector (FMCG). It also investigates whether these relationships are moderated by gender and age, grounded in Social Exchange Theory (SET). Design/methodology/approach A quantitative research design was adopted using a structured survey administered to 390 HR professionals from medium and large-sized FMCG organisations in India. Structural equation modeling (SEM) was employed to test the hypothesised mediation model, while multi-group analysis (MGA) assessed differences across gender and age cohorts. Findings The results indicate that HRA enhances engagement and well-being, which substantially mediate its impact on retention rates. MGA shows that these paths vary as a function of employee demographics, being stronger for female and younger employees. Research limitations/implications The study extends HRA literature by positioning HRA as a strategic enabler of performance management rather than merely a measurement tool. Anchored in SET, it uncovers a sequential mechanism through which HRA strengthens retention via engagement and well-being. Practical implications The findings offer actionable insights for HR practitioners to integrate analytics into performance systems, enabling targeted interventions that enhance engagement, well-being, and long-term retention. Originality/value This study uniquely integrates dual mediation and demographic moderation to explain the HRA–retention link. It advances Social Exchange Theory by revealing differentiated exchange mechanisms and positions HR Analytics as a strategic, employee-centric capability within the underexplored Indian FMCG context.