The perception paradox: an ecological health belief model for soil heavy metal risk in Abuja, Nigeria—implications for sustainable development

Rapid urbanisation in sub-Saharan Africa produces complex land-use overlaps where hazardous soil contamination and essential livelihoods coexist. The health belief model (HBM) assumes perceived susceptibility and severity drive protective behaviour. In livelihood-dependent settings, economic necessity frequently overrides health concerns, generating a ‘perception paradox’ in which high-exposure communities display low concern. This study tests the ecological health belief model (Eco-HBM), which posits livelihood dependence moderates the relationship between objective contamination and subjective risk perception. A sequential explanatory mixed-methods design was applied across four urban land-use sites in Abuja, Nigeria. Surface soil samples ( n = 20) were analysed for Pb, Cd and Cr by flame atomic absorption spectrophotometry. A cross-sectional survey ( N = 392) and focus-group discussions ( N = 64) measured the risk perception index (RPI; derived from perceived susceptibility and severity items) and livelihood dependence. Hierarchical regression tested Eco-HBM predictors. Severe contamination occurred at the artisanal mining site (Mpape: Pb = 412.5 ± 45.2 mg kg ^−1 ) and the wastewater-irrigation site (Karshi: Cd = 12.4 ± 1.8 mg kg ^−1 ), both exceeding Environmental Standards and Regulations Enforcement Agency limits. Paradoxically, these high-exposure communities recorded lowest risk perception (RPI = 5.55 and 5.20), while the low-exposure residential site (Garki) recorded highest (RPI = 7.74). Livelihood dependence ( β = − 0.12, p = 0.007) and longer residency ( β = − 0.27, p < 0.001) were associated with lower risk perception, while educational attainment was a strong positive predictor ( β = 0.70, p < 0.001). An entrapment threshold emerged at approximately 65%–70% livelihood dependence, above which perceived risk fell below 6.0 irrespective of contamination level. The Eco-HBM outperforms the standard HBM in livelihood-dependent settings. The entrapment threshold offers a practical diagnostic tool: communities above the threshold require viable economic alternatives before awareness campaigns can succeed. These findings carry implications for environmental health policy in rapidly urbanising cities across the Global South.