Key result
NYHA trajectory predicts mortality and HF hospitalization, but adds no prognostic value beyond follow-up class.
Why the study?
The incidence, predictors, and prognostic implications of longitudinal NYHA class changes in heart failure across the ejection fraction spectrum were not well characterized.
Do longitudinal NYHA class trajectories predict morbidity and mortality in patients with heart failure?
Cohort (n=13,535)
Yes
Do longitudinal NYHA class trajectories predict morbidity and mortality in patients with heart failure?
The prognostic value of NYHA class trajectories in heart failure is entirely explained by the most recent (follow-up) NYHA class assessment, suggesting single time-point assessment is sufficient for clinical practice and trial design.
NYHA trajectories add no independent prognostic value beyond follow-up class; leaves open whether serial assessments refine risk stratification or trial endpoints in HF.
AIMS: To investigate incidence, predictors and prognostic implications of longitudinal New York Heart Association (NYHA) class changes (i.e. improving or worsening vs. stable NYHA class) in heart failure (HF) across the ejection fraction (EF) spectrum. METHODS AND RESULTS: From the Swedish HF Registry, 13 535 patients with EF and ≥2 NYHA class assessments were considered. Multivariable multinomial regressions were fitted to identify the independent predictors of NYHA change. Over a 1-year follow-up, 69% of patients had stable, 17% improved, and 14% worsened NYHA class. Follow-up in specialty care predicted improving NYHA class, whereas an in-hospital patient registration, lower EF, renal disease, lower mean arterial pressure, older age, and longer HF duration predicted worsening. The association between NYHA change and subsequent outcomes was assessed with multivariable Cox models. When adjusting for the NYHA class at baseline, improving NYHA class was independently associated with lower while worsening with higher risk of all-cause and cardiovascular mortality, and first HF hospitalization. After adjustment for the NYHA class at follow-up, NYHA class change did not predict morbidity/mortality. NYHA class assessment at baseline and follow-up predicted morbidity/mortality on top of the changes. Results were consistent across the EF spectrum. CONCLUSION: In a large real-world HF population, NYHA class trajectories predicted morbidity/mortality after extensive adjustments. However, the prognostic role was entirely explained by the resulting NYHA class, i.e. the follow-up value. Our results highlight that considering one-time NYHA class assessment, rather than trajectories, might be the preferable approach in clinical practice and for clinical trial design.
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Lindberg et al. (2022) conducted a cohort in Heart failure (n=13,535). Longitudinal NYHA class changes (improving or worsening) vs. Stable NYHA class was evaluated on All-cause mortality, cardiovascular mortality, and first HF hospitalization. Over 1 year, 17% of patients improved and 14% worsened in NYHA class; while trajectories predicted mortality and hospitalization, this was entirely explained by the follow-up NYHA class.
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