Democratic Media Performance and Democratization: A Global Longitudinal Perspective

Media that effectively perform their democratic functions are widely considered a key driver of democratization, yet longitudinal evidence on their impact remains limited. This study analyzed global annual time-series data on democratic media performance and democratization from 1946 to 2018. ARIMA models indicated a covariation between annual increases in democratic media performance and gains in democratization worldwide, measured by Vanhanen’s Index of Democratization. The analysis also revealed covariation with V-Dem’s liberal, participatory, deliberative, and egalitarian component indices of democratic quality. Evidence on temporal ordering, consistent with Granger causality, was found for Vanhanen’s index and the participatory and deliberative V-Dem component indices; evidence was marginal for the liberal component and absent for the egalitarian component. Acknowledging limitations regarding causal interpretation, the results are consistent with the claim that media can act as a leading force in democratic development rather than merely reflecting it, particularly in electoral, participatory, and deliberative dimensions.