Peripheral Insecurity in Nigeria: Examining the Relationship Between Conflict Exposure, Socioeconomic Deprivation and Settlement Characteristics

This research examines the geographic relationship between recorded insecurity, socioeconomic deprivation, settlement structure, and household-reported security experiences across Nigeria’s 36 states and the Federal Capital Territory (FCT). Using an exploratory quantitative design, the study integrates 2025 Armed Conflict Location & Event Data (ACLED) on recorded events and fatalities with state-level multidimensional poverty incidence from the 2021/22 Nigeria Multidimensional Poverty Index Survey, WorldPop 2025 urban-cluster footprint data, and household-reported security-related shocks from the National Bureau of Statistics. Recorded events and fatalities are standardized using 2022 population projections, while descriptive statistics, Pearson and Spearman correlations, multiple linear regression, diagnostic analysis, and sensitivity analysis are used to examine geographic associations. The findings show substantial variation in recorded insecurity across states, with event frequency and fatality intensity displaying distinct geographic patterns. The relationship between multidimensional poverty and recorded insecurity is relatively weak and statistically uncertain at the state level. Urban-cluster footprint shows a negative bivariate association with recorded event and fatality rates, although this relationship becomes less certain in multivariable and sensitivity analyses. Household-reported security shocks show the strongest association with recorded insecurity, and this relationship remains when Borno is excluded. The study does not establish causal relationships and is limited by its state-level design, temporal differences between datasets, and the measurement characteristics of event-based and household data.