The Transition of CO2 Emission and Employment Multipliers from Brown to Green Under a Renewable Energy-Based Economic Growth Scenario in Türkiye:2053 Vision

In this study, the changes in employment and CO 2 emission multipliers caused by economic growth and the transition to renewable energy are calculated under two scenarios in Türkiye. In the first scenario, employment and CO 2 emission multipliers are calculated for every 1 million dollars of final demand for all sectors in the Turkish economy with the current use of energy resources. Extended input-output analysis is applied using employment and CO 2 emission data published on dates consistent with Türkiye's most recent input-output table. The findings show that employment in all sectors would increase by 828 persons (14 persons in the energy sector), and CO 2 emissions would increase by 29,323 (MtCO 2 ) (5548.2 (MtCO 2 ) in the energy sector). Then, the second scenario analysis was conducted for Türkiye's COP29 commitments. Considering Türkiye's COP 29 target of increasing the share of renewable energy to 69.1% in 2053, it is assumed that CO 2 emissions will decrease at the same rate. In this framework, the same analysis was used to calculate how much CO 2 emissions would decrease in case of a demand of 1 million dollars for each sector separately. As a result, it was concluded that the CO 2 emissions caused by the production of all sectors would decrease by 20262.4 (MtCO 2 ) (2119.43 (MtCO 2 ) in the energy sector). Regarding employment, it is estimated that 10 people will work in the renewable energy sector.