The impacts of increased demand for bioenergy on the water-society-climate nexus in the Brazilian context

Bioenergy has been identified as a pivotal solution to address the pressing climate change crisis and a substantial increase in ethanol demand in Brazil is projected by 2030. This study investigates two scenarios to meet the future ethanol demand: i) introducing irrigation in existing sugarcane cultivation area; ii) expanding production areas onto degraded pastureland. Using Life Cycle Assessment and Input-Output Matrix, the global warming potential (GWP), water scarcity (WS), gross domestic product (GDP) , and new job opportunities were assessed to identify the complementarities and incompatibilities among these indicators, considering the Sustainable Development Goals. The results indicate that irrigation would increase sugarcane yields, avoiding the expansion of sugarcane cultivation into new areas while requiring a limited increase in agricultural operations. This would lead to a reduction in GHG emissions (advantage for SDG 13) when compared with the Expansion scenario. Nevertheless, the repercussions on WS (which escalates up to 36-fold the material footprint per GDP in comparison to the Expansion scenario) and less employment opportunities represent challenges for SDGs 6 and 1, as well as SDG target 8.4. Expanding ethanol production in areas with low WS impacts not only enhances the security of national energy supply but also strengthens labour absorption in less dynamic territories; however, the benefits associated with these jobs depend on factors such as labor qualification, wage levels, employment stability, and access to social infrastructure.