A systematic review of simulation models in meat supply and value chains: Policies, stakeholders, and modeling approaches

Introduction and Aim Analyzing and improving the performance of meat supply and value chains is essential for increasing food security, profitability, and sustainability. This study aims to provide a systematic review of simulation studies in meat chains (chicken, beef, and pork) and to evaluate policies, stakeholders, and modeling methods. Methods A database search identified 177 records. After removing 69 duplicates, 108 records remained for screening, and a further 81 were excluded. Of the 27 full-text studies assessed, 11 were excluded due to irrelevance, failure to meet simulation/modeling criteria, or insufficient methodological details. Following full-text assessment, 16 studies were included in the final synthesis. Data were extracted and analyzed based on dissemination characteristics, geographical distribution, meat type, chain type, geographical level of study, modeling approach, stakeholders, model input and output variables, flows modeled, and policy classification. Results A total of 16 eligible studies were included in the review. Most studies were conducted between 2020 and 2025, accounting for 12/16 (75.00%) and were conducted at the national level accounting for 11/16 (68.75%). South Africa contributed 3/16 (18.75%) of studies, followed by Indonesia, Iran, China and Malaysia, with 2/16(12.50%) each. Poultry was the most commonly modeled meat type, accounting for 9/16 (56.25%) of the included studies, followed by beef with 4/16 (25.00%) and pork with 3/16 (18.75%). Supply chain studies accounted for 10/16 (62.50%) of the included studies, and system dynamics was used in 13/16 (81.25%) studies. Producers and livestock farmers were the most commonly represented stakeholder group, appearing in 13/16 (81.25%) of the studies, consultation through interviews, questionnaires, or expert surveys was the most common method of stakeholder engagement, reported in 10/16 (62.50%) of the studies. Production, biological and economic variables were among the most commonly input variables and were included in 16/16 (100%) of the models, while economic outputs were the most commonly reported output category, identified in 8/16 (50.00%) of the studies. Material flows were also modeled in 15/16 (93.75%) of the studies. The policies examined were categorized into five main groups: productivity enhancement, market and trade policies, institutional and coordination policies, environmental and sustainability policies, and operational planning and optimization. Overall, combined policies were more effective in improving chain performance than single-dimensional interventions. Conclusion The results of this review showed that simulation models, especially system dynamics models, are effective tools for analyzing complex systems and evaluating policies in meat supply and value chains. The findings indicate that multidimensional and integrated policies are more effective than single interventions, and that simultaneous attention to different stakeholder groups, economic, biological, social, and environmental variables can improve the quality of decision-making and policymaking. Also, developing hybrid models, strengthening stakeholder participation, standardizing model reporting, and expanding studies to other sources of animal protein are among the most important priorities for future research.