Roof–Facade Photovoltaic and Battery Planning in Energy Communities Under Uncertainty

Energy-community planning depends on when photovoltaic (PV) electricity is generated, not only on annual production. This study combines one year of 15 min demand from 20 metering profiles with 8 simulated roof and facade PV profiles. Hourly direct-current profiles were scaled to reported annual alternating-current yields to obtain AC-equivalent profiles. Chronological battery simulation was used to evaluate 32,472 comparison records under equal installed capacity and equal annual generation. At equal capacity, facade substitution reduced export but could lower demand coverage because annual generation also changed. At equal generation, compensating for the yield difference improved demand matching but required additional PV capacity. Structured-uncertainty ranking selected 62.5% facade PV with 1.0 h of storage in the capacity-equivalent mode and 87.5% with 1.5 h in the energy-equivalent mode. Performance was assessed on 10,000 ranking-excluded realizations. Orientation and objective weights affected selected shares, while temporal disaggregation strongly affected modeled peak export. Allocation rules changed member outcomes without altering aggregate performance, and 500 resampled communities showed sensitivity to member composition. The uncertainty analysis represents bounded scenario-based sensitivity rather than an empirically calibrated probabilistic risk model. Results apply to the analyzed demand pool and common PV climate and represent technical portfolios rather than economically optimal or site-ready designs.