Landings and First-Sale Prices of Greek Coastal Fisheries: A Multi-Market Time-Series Analysis (2013–2025)

Understanding how landings and prices of commercially important species co-vary through time is relevant to managing Mediterranean coastal fisheries, yet few studies have examined both jointly across multiple species, markets and years in the eastern Mediterranean. We analyzed monthly landings and nominal, undeflated first-sale prices for eight species at twelve Greek fish markets, from 2013 to 2025 (9313 cleaned records), using descriptive, trend, spatial, multivariate and forecasting methods. Landed quantities were three to six times more variable than prices. Gross first-sale value totalled €795 million; landed quantity accounted for at least 95% of the variance in log value in every species, against 2–5% for price, and otter-trawl species supplied 12% of the landed weight but 37% of the value. Trends were modeled with a Tweedie generalized linear mixed model including harmonic seasonality, market random intercepts and first-order autocorrelation. Once serial dependence was absorbed, only two species retained a significant trend: round sardinella increased by 9.6% per year, and big-scale sand smelt declined by 7.2% per year. Same-year landings–price correlations were negative for abundant finfish and pelagics but positive for the two trawl crustaceans. Landings and value were concentrated in three hubs. First-sale market records offer a complementary monitoring tool.