A National Framework to Match Surplus Hydropower Green Hydrogen Supply with Bus-Sector Demand

This study presents a national planning framework to match green hydrogen (GH2) produced from surplus hydropower with bus-sector demand for decarbonization in Ecuador. Bus fleet records (2013–2023) were compiled at the provincial level, and a neural network model using the population and year as inputs was developed to forecast fleet size through to 2035. Representative Heavy-Duty Urban Dynamometer Driving Schedule (HD-UDDS) cycles and a Python 3.11-based longitudinal energy model were applied to estimate national energy demand and fuel requirements. The framework projects 28,857 buses and an energy demand of 22,304.21 TJ/year in 2026, requiring 183,460.08 t GH2/year for complete diesel replacement. Comparison with surplus-based hydrogen production reveals a significant supply–demand gap, with only about 110,000 t/year potentially available in 2026. Diesel’s baseline CO2 emissions were estimated at 1.66 Mt/year in 2026, and comparison with COPERT showed a 2.9% difference, supporting the reliability of the proposed methodology. Overall, the framework provides a practical tool for planning hydrogen production and refueling infrastructure under limited-data conditions.