Heat Susceptibility Mapping Across Khulna District, Bangladesh: Development and Analysis of a Comprehensive Heat Vulnerability Index and Delineating Intervention Areas

This research assesses heat vulnerability in Khulna, Bangladesh, by developing a heat vulnerability index (HVI) to evaluate susceptibility to extreme heat. The analysis considers 19 factors that represent exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity, including critical variables like humidity and air temperature, which were previously recommended but not included in one index of earlier studies. Principal component analysis (PCA) is used to analyse and standardise these variables across 13 upazilas (sub‐districts), uncovering notable differences in vulnerability across the region. Five upazilas are identified as high‐risk areas, with Khan Jahan Ali being the most vulnerable which is 5.77 times more vulnerable than the least affected upazila, Dumuria. Sensitivity demonstrates a strong correlation (0.88) with the HVI, emphasising the interconnection of socio‐economic and demographic factors to heat event impacts. The study highlights the unique importance of Khulna for such an analysis due to its tropical climate, high humidity and geographic position near the Sundarbans and coastal regions, which expose it to compounded climate risks, including urban heat island effects and socio‐economic vulnerabilities. Although Khulna is a growing urban centre with a diverse population, it has lacked region‐specific assessments which makes this study the first to systematically map and quantify its heat vulnerability. The findings emphasise the need for targeted interventions, including enhancing green infrastructure where needed most through patchwork hotspot analysis, increasing public awareness and integrating heat resilience into urban planning, aiming to support healthy ecology and sustainable urban development and climate management in line with Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). This study provides a detailed spatial analysis of heat vulnerability, offering critical insights to guide policymakers and planners in developing tailored strategies, implementing protective measures and enhancing community resilience to extreme heat events.