Linking climate change, food price dynamics and deprivation: a development perspective of India

Climate change has appeared as a major threat to sustainable growth, affecting food supplies, prevailing prices and socioeconomic conditions, notably in developing nations. This study investigates the interlinkages between deprivation, food price dynamics and climate change in India by applying a Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) framework. The study employs annual time-series data derived from World Bank Development Indicators (WDI), RBI Handbook of Statistics and HDI Reports. A novel climate index is constructed using an autoencoder framework, where positive environmental indicators such as forest cover and renewable energy are reversed so that higher values represent worsening climate conditions. Findings highlight that poverty reduction strategies cannot be sustained without climate resilience, and climate policies must integrate social welfare, underscoring the urgency of climate-sensitive poverty alleviation for sustainable development in India. Future studies can build by incorporating state-level panel data to measure regional disparities in the investigated relationship throughout India.