Climatic and Socioeconomic Determinants of Consumer Food Price Index Dynamics: Empirical Evidence from 47 Advanced and Emerging Economies (2001–2022)

This study investigates the empirical links between climatic/socio-economic factors and Consumer Price Food Indices (CPFIs) across 47 advanced and emerging economies from 2001 to 2022. Utilizing a balanced panel dataset compiled from the World Bank’s World Development Indicators, FAO databases, and UNDP Human Development Reports, the analysis applies fixed-effects and random-effects panel data models to evaluate the drivers of food price dynamics. The empirical results reveal that socio-economic variables, specifically the Human Development Index (HDI), food price inflation, and agricultural productivity, are consistently associated with food indices, underscoring the critical role of structural development and nominal inflationary pressures. Climatic factors, particularly temperature anomalies, also exert a significant impact: a one-degree Celsius increase in temperature anomalies is associated with a 0.82-unit rise in the food price index level, whereas expansions in forest area and agricultural land are linked to price reductions. These findings indicate that food price dynamics are shaped by the intricate interplay of climate variability and socio-economic conditions. Consequently, policy recommendations emphasize targeted investments in socio-economic development, climate adaptation measures (including support for climate-resilient agriculture), and sustainable land management (forest conservation and optimized land use) to enhance food system resilience and support long-term food security.