Forewarned is Forearmed: How China Learnt to Avoid an Archetypal Russian State Capture

This study explores how China learned from Russia’s post-Soviet transition to avoid state capture by business elites and shape its market reforms in the period 1991–2001. Analysing 2,048 articles and 31 expert interviews, it shows how Chinese scholars—many in advisory roles—reinforced CCP priorities through critiques of rapid privatisation and oligarchic power. Their insights aligned with and informed the Party’s cautious, state-led reform strategy. The article argues that this expert–policy alignment helped the CCP limit business elite influence, manage reforms and reinforce political control, offering new insight into state learning and China’s approach to market transition.