On the Use of Statistical Analysis Methods in Determining the Travel Time of Locomotive Crews

methods. In addition, a mathematical model is proposed that makes it possible to automate the corresponding calculations. Objective: using statistical analysis and forecasting methods, to obtain a mathematical model for predictive calculation of passenger travel time for locomotive crews in order to predict the expenses of the Traction Directorate and avoid cash gaps. Methods: construction of a trend-seasonal multiplicative mathematical model, construction of a mathematical Holt — Winters model, determination of correlations between data series, construction of a multiple linear regression model. Results: mathematical models of trend-seasonal multiplicative, Holt-Winters have been considered, and correlations of qualitative and quantitative indicators with the passenger travel time of locomotive crews have been determined in railway detail. Practical significance: the selected mathematical model can be used to predict the travel time of locomotive crews for the upcoming period to be taken into account in the budgeting of the Traction Directorate.