Key result
High-risk FIB-4 score is linked to ~18% higher risk of incident heart disease.
Why the study?
The relationship between liver fibrosis assessed by FIB-4 and cardiac structure, function, and incident heart disease remains unclear.
Does an elevated Fibrosis-4 (FIB-4) index predict incident heart disease and adverse cardiac phenotypes in a population without known baseline heart or liver disease?
Cohort (n=416,001)
Yes
Does an elevated Fibrosis-4 (FIB-4) index predict incident heart disease and adverse cardiac phenotypes in a population without known baseline heart or liver disease?
Hazard Ratio: 1.18 (95% CI 1.12–1.23)
Elevated FIB-4, a non-invasive marker for liver fibrosis, is associated with a significantly increased risk of incident cardiac arrhythmias, heart failure, and adverse structural cardiac remodeling.
High FIB-4 may flag higher arrhythmia and HF risk; extends liver-heart associations but leaves causal value and screening utility open.
Background The Fibrosis-4 Index (FIB-4) is a non-invasive tool used to assess advanced liver fibrosis. Although liver fibrosis has been linked to heart disease, its relationship with cardiac structure and function remains unclear. Objectives This study examined associations of FIB-4 with incident heart disease and cardiac morpho-functional phenotypes and explored whether cardiac phenotypes statistically accounted for part of the association. Methods In this prospective cohort study using the UK Biobank, 416,001 participants without known heart or liver disease at baseline (mean age 56.15 ± 8.09 years; 55.78% female) were followed for up to 17 years. FIB-4, calculated from age, AST, ALT, and platelet count, was analyzed continuously and using a high-risk threshold of >2.67. Incident coronary heart disease, cardiac arrhythmias (CA), and heart failure (HF) were identified from linked records. A subset of 33,927 participants underwent cardiovascular magnetic resonance (CMR) imaging a median of 10.20 years after baseline. Results Over a median follow-up of 14.61 years, 57,207 participants (13.75%) developed heart disease. Higher FIB-4 was associated with CA (HR = 1.32, 95% CI 1.24–1.41), HF (HR = 1.29, 95% CI 1.14–1.47), greater LV mass ( β =0.014, 95% CI 0.0003–0.027), chamber dilation, reduced atrial ejection fractions, and LV remodeling. Exploratory pathway analysis indicated that LA ejection fraction statistically accounted for 36.38% of the FIB-4–CA/HF association; causal mediation cannot be inferred. Conclusion Elevated FIB-4 was associated with incident CA and HF and with adverse CMR phenotypes. Exploratory pathway results were consistent with indirect pathways through cardiac remodeling, but the observational design and single CMR assessment preclude causal or temporal interpretation. FIB-4 may help identify people at higher cardiovascular risk.
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Yang et al. (2026) conducted a cohort in Incident heart disease and adverse cardiac phenotypes (n=416,001). High-risk Fibrosis-4 Index (FIB-4 >2.67) vs. Low/indeterminate-risk Fibrosis-4 Index (FIB-4 ≤2.67) was evaluated on Incident heart disease (HR 1.18, 95% CI 1.12-1.23). High-risk FIB-4 score increased the risk of incident heart disease (HR 1.18), including cardiac arrhythmias and heart failure, and was linked to adverse cardiac phenotypes.
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