Renewable demand or sanctions? A descriptive decomposition of Russia–China mineral trade dynamics

After comprehensive Western economic sanctions were imposed in 2022, Russia’s critical mineral exports to China surged from a pre-sanctions (2000–2021) annual average of $277 million per mineral to $1.02 billion per mineral in 2022–2024, both in current U.S. dollars — a 268% increase. This raises a fundamental attribution question: does the export surge stem from sanctions-induced trade diversion or from concurrent global renewable energy transition demand? Because the two processes occurred simultaneously, documenting the distinct contribution of each poses a significant empirical challenge. This study uses panel data on eight critical minerals exported from Russia to China over 2000–2024, employing three model specifications with progressively introduced controls based on fixed-effects regression: baseline sanctions estimation, renewable demand incorporation, and interaction testing. The sanctions effect coefficient falls from 3.682 to 0.946 and loses statistical significance once renewable energy demand variables are controlled for, whereas the renewable energy transition coefficient remains significant, at the 10% level or better, across the main robustness specifications. Analysis of differences across mineral categories suggests that sanctions effects appear primarily in highly standardized base materials, while technology-intensive minerals show stronger alignment with renewable demand patterns. Cross-mineral heterogeneity reveals a systematic gradient in renewable demand sensitivity — 1.135 for battery-critical materials against 0.237 for base materials — that mirrors the functional roles of minerals in the energy value chain and cannot be attributed to common time trends. The paper’s contribution lies in documenting three descriptive patterns: pre-existing import trends, cross-mineral heterogeneity, and coefficient trajectories under progressive controls, which together provide observational insights into Russia–China mineral trade dynamics.