Beyond conventional ESG: configurational synergies and path effects on the return resilience of infrastructure REITs

As sustainable development has gained increasing prominence, environmental, social, and governance (ESG) issues have become an important research topic in the field of infrastructure real estate investment trusts (Infra-REITs). However, the three conventional ESG dimensions alone are no longer sufficient to fully explain the mechanisms through which ESG affects earnings resilience. Drawing on the operational characteristics of the Infra-REITs market, this study develops an “ESG+” analytical framework comprising two dimensions: underlying assets and capital markets. Using both questionnaire evidence and empirical data, it integrates fuzzy-set qualitative comparative analysis (fsQCA) and necessary-condition analysis (NCA) to systematically identify the configurational paths through which multiple factors jointly shape the earnings resilience of Infra-REITs. To mitigate potential subjective bias, a LASSO regression model is further employed to identify key variables containing incremental predictive information and to conduct a complementary comparison with the configurational results. The results show that: (1) ESG elements such as green certification, energy efficiency, and social responsibility significantly enhance return resilience under specific contextual conditions, demonstrating strong multi-factor synergies; (2) project cash flow and energy efficiency emerge as core conditions across several configurations, underscoring the foundational role of operational performance in shaping Infra-REITs’ resilience; and (3) under imperfect legal and fiscal systems, market liquidity, pricing mechanisms, and information disclosure interact as critical complementary mechanisms that strengthen return stability. The findings contribute to a more comprehensive understanding of ESG–resilience linkages and provide theoretical and practical guidance for optimizing investment management and improving institutional design in the Infra-REITs market.