Climate-driven reorganization and contraction of arid and semi-arid climatic suitability for the Egyptian cobra (Naja haje) across North African drylands and Mediterranean transition zones

Climate change is expected to reshape species distributions in arid and semi-arid regions through changes in temperature and water availability. We modelled the present and future climatic suitability of the Egyptian cobra ( Naja haje ) across North African drylands and adjacent Mediterranean transition zones using ecological niche modelling. Occurrence records from the Global Biodiversity Information Facility (GBIF) were filtered to obtain 112 high-quality presence records. Models were calibrated with the maxnet implementation of the maximum entropy algorithm within the biogeographically defined calibration area (M) and projected using the MIROC6 climate model under SSP2–4.5 and SSP5–8.5 for mid-century (2041–2060) and late-century (2061–2080). Model performance was acceptable (validation AUC = 0.669; CBI = 0.923). Climatic suitability currently forms a broad belt across North African drylands, with highest suitability in southern tropical and subhumid sectors. Future projections indicate a 14.0–19.0% contraction of climatically suitable area within the calibration area (M), with declines across parts of the hyper-arid Sahara and persistence or localized increases in southern and transitional regions. These results indicate climate-driven contraction and spatial reorganization of climatically suitable conditions along existing aridity gradients, providing a regional framework for biosecurity, environmental management, and surveillance of human-mediated introductions.