System dynamic model on cost-time-material waste analysis for supply chain management of offsite panelised systems in the housing sector

Purpose To effectively support the housing sector, the offsite construction (OSC) supply chain (SC) requires strengthened skills, expanded operational capacity and improved organisational capabilities. However, ongoing SC management (SCM) issues, such as cost overruns, inefficient processes and material waste, continue to limit the housing sector’s adoption of OSC. By addressing these barriers, this study aims to improve OSC-SCM processes while expanding the talent and capability base needed for construction ecosystems. Design/methodology/approach A system dynamics (SD) modelling approach is used to analyse cost and time dynamics under multiple disruption scenarios quantitatively. The model incorporates key barriers, like design inefficiencies, labour shortages, equipment delays and logistical constraints, while also simulating the potential performance gains achievable through skill development, capacity expansion and capability upgrading. Findings The simulation results demonstrate the complex relationships among SC performance, operational capacity and personnel capability in OSC. The findings point to key areas for leverage where focused interventions, such as digital design integration, improved worker training and rapid logistics planning, can increase productivity, cut waste and improve preparedness simultaneously. Originality/value In the OSC context, this research presents a novel integration of SD modelling, showing how digitally driven skill enhancement and capacity building can serve as catalysts for attaining next-generation construction performance and overcoming enduring SCM barriers.