Competitiveness and Trade Dynamics of Apricot in Afghanistan

Afghanistan possesses strong agro-climatic advantages for apricot cultivation, making it one of the most economically and culturally significant horticultural crops in the country. Despite this, the performance of its exports, particularly fresh and dried forms, remains limited due to infrastructural bottlenecks, post-harvest inefficiencies and market volatility. This study analyzed the export competitiveness and trade direction of apricots in Afghanistan using two complementary methods: the revealed comparative advantage (RCA) and Markov chain analysis. RCA values calculated for the top 10 apricot export markets in Afghanistan from 2008 to 2019 revealed strong comparative advantage in India and Pakistan, but weak competitiveness in high-income markets, namely the USA and Germany. The results also demonstrated fluctuating competitiveness across years and destinations, underscoring dependency on a narrow set of regional markets. To examine trade direction and structural shifts, Markov chain models were applied. Transition probability matrices showed high export retention with key partners such as India, Pakistan and Saudi Arabia, indicating stable trade relationships. However, markets such as the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Kazakhstan and the USA exhibited volatility, with exports frequently redirected to more accessible or politically aligned destinations. The findings highlighted that while regional markets provide a reliable foundation, diversification into non-traditional destinations remained limited and inconsistent. Policy recommendations include improving cold chain logistics, standardizing quality and adopting certification mechanisms like organic and geographic indication labelling.