Feedback-driven paradigm shifts and event-driven incrementalism: evidence from South Korea through the Multiple Streams Framework

This study extends the Multiple Streams Framework (MSF) by examining how three subcomponents of the problem stream – focusing events, indicators, and feedback – interact with the timing of decision-window openings to shape modes of policy change. It conducts a comparative analysis of South Korea’s responses to four emerging infectious disease outbreaks – SARS, H1N1, MERS, and COVID-19 – and identifies conditional mechanisms linking problem characteristics to policy outcomes. The findings show that when decision windows open late, both incremental and paradigmatic change remain possible regardless of the problem-stream subcomponent associated with the window. By contrast, when windows open early, the type of problem-stream subcomponent becomes consequential for the mode of policy change. Early-opening decision windows associated with focusing events or indicators tend to produce incremental change, as decision makers under time pressure rely on pre-existing policy alternatives. Early-opening decision windows associated with feedback, however, are more likely to generate paradigmatic change because feedback reveals implementation failures and institutional limitations. By distinguishing event-driven incrementalism from feedback-driven paradigm shifts, this study clarifies how window timing conditions the relationship between problem-stream characteristics and modes of policy change and extends the explanatory scope of the MSF for understanding crisis-induced policy change.