Key result
Five-variable clinical nomogram predicts 3-year new-onset hypertension risk with ~0.77 AUC.
Why the study?
A predictive tool for the 3-year incidence of new-onset hypertension in the eastern Liaoning population was lacking.
Cohort (n=3,202)
No
Effect estimate: AUC 0.772 (95% CI 0.748-0.796)
A simple nomogram based on five routine physical examination indicators (age, SBP, DBP, BMI, and TG) demonstrates good predictive accuracy for the 3-year risk of new-onset hypertension.
Supports preventive efforts in similar cohorts; leaves open nomogram utility pending external validation.
Objectives In this study, we created a nomogram using health examination data from the eastern Liaoning region of China to predict the 3‐year incidence of new‐onset hypertension. Methods This study was a single‐center retrospective cohort study based on data from a prospectively collected database in eastern Liaoning Province. The study included 3202 adult participants without hypertension (who underwent health examinations), and routine physical examination indicators at enrollment were the study variables. The follow‐up period was 3 years. The primary outcome was the incidence of new‐onset hypertension during the follow‐up period. We analyzed the raw dataset (including missing data). Based on multivariate logistic regression analysis to identify independent predictors, we constructed a logistic regression model to predict the risk of new‐onset hypertension within 3 years. We performed internal model validation using the Bootstrap method (500 iterations). Based on the logistic regression results, we plotted the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) and calibration curves. Results The overall morbidity of hypertension was 20.71%. Subjects were divided randomly into a development group ( n = 2243) and a validation group ( n = 959). After multivariate analysis in the development group, age, systolic blood pressure (SBP), diastolic blood pressure (DBP), body mass index (BMI), and triglycerides (TG) were identified as risk predictors and integrated into the nomogram. The areas under the ROC were 0.772 (95% CI: 0.748–0.796) and 0.768 (95% CI: 0.731–0.805) in the development and validation groups, respectively. The calibration curve demonstrated good agreement between the estimated probability and the actual observation. Conclusion Our nomogram could be a simple tool for predicting the 3‐year risk of new‐onset hypertension in the eastern Liaoning health examination population. Trial Registration: Chinese Registry of Clinical Trials: ChiCTR2300074593
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Yan et al. (2026) conducted a cohort in Hypertension (n=3,202). Risk predictors (age, systolic blood pressure, diastolic blood pressure, BMI, and triglycerides) was evaluated on Incidence of new-onset hypertension during the follow-up period (AUC 0.772, 95% CI 0.748-0.796). A nomogram incorporating age, systolic blood pressure, diastolic blood pressure, body mass index, and triglycerides predicted the 3-year risk of new-onset hypertension with an AUC of 0.772 (95% CI 0.748-0.796).
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