Key result
Iran's ischemic heart disease prevalence is projected to rise ~16% by 2040.
Why the study?
Ischemic heart disease is a leading cause of death in Iran, and monitoring its national and subnational trends is essential for disease management and achieving Sustainable Development Goal 3.4.
Observational
Effect estimate: 16% increase (95% CI 7163.9-7512.4)
Absolute Event Rate: 7336.1% vs 6327.23%
The projected 16% rise in ischemic heart disease prevalence in Iran by 2040 underscores an urgent need for localized, region-specific, and age-targeted cardiovascular prevention strategies.
BACKGROUND: Ischemic heart disease (IHD) is a leading cause of death in Iran, and monitoring its trends is essential for disease management and achieving Sustainable Development Goal 3.4. METHODS: This study examines the prevalence of IHD in Iran at national and subnational levels and projects future trends to 2040. We retrieved sex-specific IHD data for Iran and its provinces from 1990 to 2021 from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study 2021 and applied the illness-death model (IDM) to estimate age-standardized prevalence rates (ASPRs) by 2040. RESULTS: In Iran, the ASPR of IHD decreased until 2009 but began to rise again by 2021. By 2040, prevalence is projected to increase by 16% to 7,336.1 per 100,000 (95% CI: 7,163.9-7,512.4). In 2021, the highest provincial ASPRs were observed in Khuzestan, Yazd, and Alborz; by 2040, Yazd, Khuzestan, and North Khorasan are expected to have the highest rates. Conversely, Hamadan, Sistan and Baluchistan, and West Azarbayejan had the lowest ASPRs in both 2021 and 2040. A similar pattern was observed in both males and females. CONCLUSION: These findings indicate an upward trend in IHD nationwide and across all provinces by 2040. To lessen the future impact of IHD in Iran, it is crucial to tackle modifiable risk factors, strengthen the healthcare system, and improve prevention efforts.
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Rahmanian et al. (2026) conducted an observational in Ischemic heart disease. Time period (Projections to 2040) vs. Baseline year (2021) was evaluated on Age-standardized prevalence rate (ASPR) per 100,000 population (16% increase, 95% CI 7163.9-7512.4). The age-standardized prevalence rate of ischemic heart disease in Iran is projected to increase by 16% to 7,336.1 per 100,000 population by 2040.
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