Scenario-Based Modeling and Assessment of the Future European Hydrogen Backbone

The evolving hydrogen transmission network is a key component of Europe’s energy transition. This study assesses whether the planned European hydrogen transmission grid can accommodate projected regional supply and demand in 2030, 2040, and 2050. Scenario data from the TransHyDE System Analysis project are combined with GIS-based network models in order to perform European-scale hydraulic simulations. The modeled topology integrates the European Hydrogen Backbone and the German hydrogen core network. The assessment considers operational thresholds for pressure and flow velocity. Results indicate that the fragmented 2030 network can satisfy demand at the time of maximum aggregated regional (NUTS 3-level) consumption. By 2040, the grid develops into a largely meshed system. However, regional supply–demand imbalances and high hydrogen imports from North Africa cause elevated pressures in southern Spain and Italy. The affected pipeline segments have maximum operating pressures of 50–80 bar, whereas simulated pressures reach approximately 130 bar in 2040 and up to 200 bar in 2050. The southern European pipelines and interconnections between the Iberian Peninsula and Central Europe therefore appear insufficiently dimensioned under the investigated scenario.