An Investigation of the Import and Export of Agricultural Raw Materials on Economic Growth in Nigeria

This study investigated the impact of the import and export of agricultural raw materials on economic growth in Nigeria, with a specific focus on understanding how international trade influences national output, the extent to which the global fluctuations of agricultural commodities in the agricultural market affects the economic growth of Nigeria and to evaluate the role of government policies and infrastructure played in facilitating agricultural trade in Nigeria. Despite Nigeria’s abundant agricultural resources, the country continues to import significant quantities of raw materials while exporting largely unprocessed commodities, thereby, raising questions about the contribution of agricultural trade to economic development. This study employed the ARDL Model (Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model), making use of time-series data from 1985-2023, to analyze both the short-run and long-run relationships between agricultural trade of raw materials internationally and economic growth. The findings reveal that agricultural exports have a statistically significantly, positive impact on economic growth in the long-run, while agricultural imports dependence undermines domestic production potentials. This study further discovered that the global price fluctuations and infrastructural constraints weaken the benefits of agricultural trade. Based on these results, the study recommends that Nigeria should prioritize value addition, invest in rural infrastructure, implement stable trade policies and support local producers to fully harness the benefits of agricultural trade for sustainable economic growth.