Sustainable rural settlements in question: Testing synergy and processes within the agricultural transition–human capital–amenities nexus in Northeast China

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Enhancing rural sustainability has become a prominent issue in the global academic debate, calling for a synergistic framework that integrates multiple dimensions of rural development. Therefore, this study develops the Agricultural Transition- Human Capital- Amenities (ACA) nexus model to explain how these three dimensions jointly contribute to and advance the theoretical framework of Sustainable Rural Settlement (SRS). Agricultural transition creates economic opportunities and supports human capital development, which in turn improves rural amenities and living conditions, ultimately promoting SRS. This research focuses on Heilongjiang Province in Northeast China, a key region for food security that faces several challenges. It examines the contradiction between agricultural modernization and sustainable rural development using panel data from 2003 to 2022. The Coupling Coordination Degree Model (CCDM) is used to measure synergy within the ACA nexus, while Method of Moments Quantile Regression (MM-QREG) identifies the heterogeneous drivers of SRS across different levels of development. The results demonstrate a convergent yet uneven sustainability trajectory across regions, with SRS scores increasing from 2003 to 2022. Despite overall progress, persistent disparities remained, as Mudanjiang consistently outperformed Heihe throughout the study period. This convergence was primarily driven by agricultural modernization after 2012, whereas improvements in amenities and living conditions lagged, revealing structural imbalances within the ACA nexus. Quantile regression results highlight mechanization, education, and village planning as key determinants, with education's effect strengthening and planning's diminishing along sustainability gradients. Rural income exhibited only negative associations rather than causal impacts, while Granger tests indicated limited short-term causality. This highlights the necessity of incorporating place-based rural policies that should no longer be sectoral to tackle multifunctional rural challenges.