More Graduates Needed? Debunking Europe’s Most Misinterpreted Higher Education Debate

Italy remains well below the European average in tertiary attainment, a gap that has reinforced a policy narrative centered on the need to increase the number of graduates. Yet aggregate attainment indicators provide limited information on the nature of graduate expansion, particularly in terms of degree level, field of study, institutional type, and labor-market alignment. This paper examines the expansion of distance-learning universities in Italy as a specific case through which to assess the nature and implications of graduate growth. Using administrative data from the Italian Ministry of University and Research and AlmaLaurea survey data, the study compares graduates from state, non-state campus-based, and distance-learning universities across degree levels and fields of study. Results show that distance-learning universities have become a major contributor to graduate growth, accounting for 18% of graduates in 2024. However, their expansion is concentrated in fields such as sport science, law, education, psychology, and social sciences, while their presence remains limited in STEM and health-related areas. These findings suggest that distance-learning higher education may formally help Italy move closer to European tertiary attainment targets, while also highlighting the need to consider whether it addresses the disciplinary imbalances that shape graduate supply and labor-market alignment.