Agriculture and Economic Growth in Syria: Evidence on the Dynamic Interrelationship from ARDL and Granger Causality Analysis

The agricultural sector is one of Syria’s vital productive sectors and is closely interconnected with nationaleconomic activity. This study examines the short-run and long-run relationship between agricultural value added (AVA),carbon dioxide emissions (CO2), gross fixed capital formation (GCF), population (POP), the Syrian crisis (CRI), and grossdomestic product (GDP) in Syria. GDP is used as the dependent variable and as a measure of aggregate economic output rather than as a direct measure of the GDP growth rate. Annual data for 1970-2021 are analyzed using the AutoregressiveDistributed Lag (ARDL) approach and the Granger causality framework. The bounds test indicates a statistically significantjoint long-run levels relationship among the model variables. The derived long-run coefficients are approximately 1.202 for AVA, 0.921 for POP, −1.391 for CO2, 0.351 for GCF, and −1.398 for the crisis dummy. These coefficients are derived fromthe estimated levels equation and should be interpreted as conditional long-run associations; their statistical significancerequires formal long-run restriction/Wald tests rather than inference from the individual levels coefficients. In the shortrun, AVA has a positive and statistically significant association with GDP, while GCF is positive at the 10% level. Bidirectional Granger causality is found between AVA and GDP, indicating a feedback relationship rather than a purely agriculture-led direction of causality. The strong AVA–GDP association also requires particular caution because AVA is an accounting component of GDP and both variables are measured in current US dollars. Consequently, part of the observed association may reflect national-accounting construction and common nominal valuation effects, in addition to genuine economic interdependence. The findings therefore indicate a close and mutually reinforcing relationship between agriculture and aggregate economic output in Syria, while the evidence does not justify characterizing agriculture as the sole or unambiguously leading source of economic growth.