The impact of modified University Entrance Requirements on exit rates for undergraduate students

This study examines a natural experiment in New Zealand higher education, where university entrance criteria were modified in response to Covid-19 disruptions to secondary education. Using comprehensive longitudinal data from seven universities, student retention outcomes were linked to their (un)modified admission marks. While the modified criteria successfully preserved pathways to university during crisis, students admitted under these criteria experienced consistently higher exit rates across all levels of prior academic achievement. However, the higher attrition rates among this cohort highlight the challenges of balancing the increased access to university with academic preparedness. The main limitation of our study is that we do not have a clear picture of what support interventions by universities were targeted towards the modified UE students. In addition, the analyses are primarily descriptive, and differences in institutional responses to the pandemic across universities may have influenced student outcomes independent of admission criteria. University admission criteria must well balance equity upon admission, the cost of failure, and equity in completion. This may be achievable by employing statistical modelling of longitudinal data to advise policy development. This study highlights the importance of adopting a comprehensive equity policy rather than a patchwork that may provide a short-term solution while not addressing negative unintended consequences. The findings suggest significant implications for policy makers and institutions considering similar interventions in response to systemic disruptions to education.