The Nexus of Environmental Quality and Agricultural Growth in Nigeria (1981 - 2023)

The study assessed the nexus of environmental quality and agricultural growth in Nigeria from 1981 to 2023. The study adopted a historical survey design using time series data in the period of 43 years. Data on the variables for the study were collected from the archives of World Bank and Food and Agriculture Organization database. The data collected were analyzed using both descriptive statistics such as mean, maximum and minimum with trend graphs and inferential statistics such as the Johansen co-integration test after testing for unit root, Granger causality test, impulse response function and Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) model. The result of the analysis revealed that environmental quality with a mean of 267821.1 kilotonnes and agricultural growth with a mean of 5.31% during the period under review. The result of Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) test for unit root indicated that all the variables (environmental quality, agricultural growth, population growth and urbanization) were found to be integrated of order one and became stationary on first differencing. The result of Johansen co-integration revealed that the computed trace statistics for none (99.12988) and at most 1 (59.40875) were greater than the critical value at 0.05 level (69.81889 and 47.85613) for none and at most 1 respectively which implied that a long run relationship exists among environmental quality and agricultural growth in Nigeria. The Granger-causality test result revealed a significant causal relationship between population growth and environmental quality, urbanization and environmental quality at 10% level of significance. More so, result of the impulse response found that environmental quality responds positively to itself both in the short and long run, positively to population growth both in the short and long run and positively to urbanization in the short run but responds negatively in the long run over the periods. Finally result of the ARDL analysis revealed that in the long run, the coefficient of environmental quality (3.861) was positive and statistically significant at 1%. In the short run, change in the coefficient of environmental quality (3.737) was positive and statistically significant at 1% probability level; therefore, environmental quality have significant effect of on agricultural growth in Nigeria both in the short and long run. The study therefore recommended that government should strengthen environmental regulations to improve environmental quality. This could involve stricter enforcement of pollution controls, incentives for adopting environmentally friendly farming practices, and investments in renewable energy to reduce the environmental impact of agricultural activities.