The Hypoxic Burden of Sleep Apnea Predicts Cardiovascular Outcomes in Patients with Heart Failure

Background Sleep-disordered breathing (SDB) is an established adverse prognostic factor in heart failure (HF). Sleep apnea-specific hypoxic burden (SASHB), which reflects the duration and depth of respiratory event–related oxygen desaturation, has shown stronger prognostic value than the apnea-hypopnea index (AHI) in general populations and patients with coronary artery disease. However, its clinical utility in patients hospitalized due to acute HF remains unclear. Objectives This study evaluated the prognostic value of SASHB in patients hospitalized for acute HF and compared its performance with AHI for risk stratification and identification of patients who may benefit from positive airway pressure (PAP) therapy. Methods This post hoc analysis included 230 patients from a prospective single-center observational cohort of adults hospitalized for acute HF. The primary analysis included 178 patients who did not receive PAP treatment. Associations of SASHB and AHI with the composite endpoint of cardiovascular death or rehospitalization for worsening HF were evaluated using Cox proportional hazards models. Model improvement after adding SASHB or AHI to a model including established clinical risk factors was assessed using changes in the C index and Brier score, reflecting changes in model discrimination and prediction error, respectively. In the full cohort, the interaction between PAP treatment and SDB metrics was evaluated using the g-formula. Results During a median follow-up of 3.7 years, 58 of 178 patients (32.6%) reached the composite endpoint. Both SASHB and AHI were independently associated with the composite outcome after multivariable adjustment. However, only SASHB consistently predicted outcomes across analyses and improved model performance beyond established prognostic factors (bootstrap ΔC index, 0.020 [95% CI: 0.008–0.031]; bootstrap ΔBrier score, −0.007 [95% CI: −0.014 to −0.001]), whereas AHI did not. In the analysis including PAP-treated patients, both SASHB and AHI showed interaction with PAP treatment. Conclusions In patients hospitalized for acute HF, SASHB showed a consistent independent association with adverse clinical outcomes and provided additional prognostic information beyond AHI. SASHB may improve risk stratification and may help identify patients who are more likely to benefit from PAP therapy.