Why do Greece and Turkey follow divergent security paths? A constructivist approach to militarization and terrorism

This paper analyses the dynamic relationship between military expenditures (ME) and terrorist incidents (TI) in Greece and Turkey from 1970 to 2020. As two NATO members with distinct governance traditions, they offer a compelling comparative framework. The study uses advanced time-series methods and a novel theoretical framework to provide empirical support for a core socially constructed identities, rather than purely rational threat responses, shape state security behaviour. The findings show that Greece exhibits a ‘reactive security’ dynamic, where TI correlates with increases in ME. Conversely, Turkey displays a ‘military-induced terrorism’ pattern, where rising defence budgets appear to intensify terrorist activity. This challenges traditional deterrence models and demonstrates how securitization can paradoxically perpetuate violence. The study highlights the risk that militarized responses may escalate conflicts, contributing to a broader understanding of securitization and conflict dynamics within institutional and geopolitical contexts.