What does this research mean for the field?

Strategic autonomy and domestic defense production capacity serve as critical structural buffers that mitigate the long-term negative macroeconomic impacts of military spending. Novelty: ClaimNovelty.INCREMENTAL. Consensus alignment: ConsensusAlignment.NEUTRAL.

What question did this study set out to answer?

To evaluate the long-term relationship and asymmetric macroeconomic effects of military expenditure on economic growth in Turkey and Greece between 1951 and 2023.

September 8, 2026Defence and Peace Economics

Growth engine or fiscal burden? Strategic autonomy and the asymmetric macroeconomic impacts of military expenditure in Turkey and Greece

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Authors

ATAslı Okay Toprak NTNuri Gökhan Toprak

Discussion

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Overview

Econometric analysis reveals divergent macroeconomic impacts of defence spending in Turkey and Greece, indicating that domestic production capacity buffers military-induced fiscal burdens.

Key Points

To evaluate the long-term relationship and asymmetric macroeconomic effects of military expenditure on economic growth in Turkey and Greece between 1951 and 2023.
Analyzed time-series data from SIPRI and the Penn World Table spanning 1951 to 2023.
Tested for slope heterogeneity and cross-sectional independence using Pesaran and Yamagata (2008) procedures.
Estimated country-specific Vector Error Correction Models (VECM) to examine long-run equilibrium cointegration and short-run dynamic responses.
In Turkey, military expenditure provided a positive short-term demand stimulus (+4.232), with defence spending shocks accounting for 9.23% of economic growth variance.
In Greece, defence spending exhibited resource competition and heightened vulnerability to geopolitical shocks, notably the 1974 crisis (−0.145), aggravating fiscal constraints.
Both countries displayed unidirectional causality running from defence expenditure to economic growth, but Turkey's domestic industrial base mitigated long-term economic burdens.

Cite This Study

Toprak et al. (2026) studied this question.

synapsesocial.com/papers/6a9fd7d558e84d0ff5b46e40 https://doi.org/10.1080/10242694.2026.2729332

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September 8, 2026Defence and Peace Economics

Growth engine or fiscal burden? Strategic autonomy and the asymmetric macroeconomic impacts of military expenditure in Turkey and Greece

View Full Paper

Ask AI

Bookmark

Authors

ATAslı Okay Toprak NTNuri Gökhan Toprak

Discussion

Member takes

Overview

Econometric analysis reveals divergent macroeconomic impacts of defence spending in Turkey and Greece, indicating that domestic production capacity buffers military-induced fiscal burdens.

Key Points

To evaluate the long-term relationship and asymmetric macroeconomic effects of military expenditure on economic growth in Turkey and Greece between 1951 and 2023.
Analyzed time-series data from SIPRI and the Penn World Table spanning 1951 to 2023.
Tested for slope heterogeneity and cross-sectional independence using Pesaran and Yamagata (2008) procedures.
Estimated country-specific Vector Error Correction Models (VECM) to examine long-run equilibrium cointegration and short-run dynamic responses.
In Turkey, military expenditure provided a positive short-term demand stimulus (+4.232), with defence spending shocks accounting for 9.23% of economic growth variance.
In Greece, defence spending exhibited resource competition and heightened vulnerability to geopolitical shocks, notably the 1974 crisis (−0.145), aggravating fiscal constraints.
Both countries displayed unidirectional causality running from defence expenditure to economic growth, but Turkey's domestic industrial base mitigated long-term economic burdens.

Cite This Study

Toprak et al. (2026) studied this question.

synapsesocial.com/papers/6a9fd7d558e84d0ff5b46e40 https://doi.org/10.1080/10242694.2026.2729332

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