The Mirage of National Development in the Global South: How Regional Inequality Conditions Climate Vulnerability

This study investigates the “resilience paradox” in the Global South: why do national developmental gains (encompassing both income levels and human development) often fail to reduce local climate vulnerability? We examine the extent to which, and under what conditions, economic development (per capita GNI) and human development (HDI) translate into lower climate vulnerability, considering the conditioning role of regional inequality. The methodology employs multilevel linear modeling applied to a harmonized Global Data Lab dataset comprising 1,239 regional units across 97 countries. The main results reveal that, although vulnerability is predominantly structured at the national level (ICC = 0.786), regional characteristics explain more than 52% of the within-country variance. Crucially, the findings demonstrate a “masking effect”: regional inequality operates as a filter that attenuates the protective effects of both regional income and national HDI. Moreover, regional human development reduces vulnerability more strongly in countries with lower national HDI.The findings suggest that adaptation finance and policy should be targeted on the basis of regional distributive conditions rather than national averages, helping to address the 'missing middle' between central policies and local implementation. By demonstrating that resilience is a product of distributive institutional architecture, rather than merely the volume of capital, the article provides novel evidence for fair and multiscalar adaptation policies in the Global South.