Economic balancing as a mechanism for stability: Insights from the China–Iran–Saudi Arabia triad

This study proposes economic balancing as a mechanism that may facilitate systemic stability in asymmetric geopolitical configurations. Extending Heider’s balance theory to international political economy and drawing on network-based models, it examines how economic interdependence with a pivotal third party may moderate tensions in structurally unbalanced state triads. Using the China–Iran–Saudi Arabia triad as an illustrative case, we introduce two analytical instruments, the economic balancing coefficient and the stability–interest matrix, to describe how economic linkages relate to political tensions within and across dyads. The results support the proposition that China’s substantial economic ties with both states, set against minimal direct Iran–Saudi Arabia ties, created structural conditions favourable to the 2023 détente. The single-case design does not establish causation, since security-driven factors also shape the rapprochement. This study therefore suggests that asymmetric economic interdependence may facilitate, rather than guarantee, accommodation between adversaries, qualifying the neorealist claim that power parity is a prerequisite for stability.