Dynamic System Modeling for Optimizing Bulog’s Rice Supply Chain in Non-Production Center Regions

Purpose: This study aims to analyze rice supply chain issues in Berau Regency, a non-central rice production area, and optimize system performance through a dynamic systems approach. The main problems include low yield due to inconsistent grain quality, high broken rice rates, and limited post-harvest facilities. Methodology: The study used a dynamic systems method by constructing Causal Loop Diagrams and Stock and Flow Diagrams. Data were obtained through observation, interviews, and literature review. Simulations were conducted using Vensim with six scenarios: baseline, improved grain quality, post-harvest technology modernization, distribution expansion, increased production, and the optimal scenario. Results: Improved grain quality had the greatest impact, with an 8–12% increase in yield compared to the baseline. Technological modernization reduced broken rice by 15% and increased processing capacity. Increasing production without increasing capacity overloaded the system and reduced efficiency. The optimal scenario produced the best performance with a more balanced system and minimal bottlenecks. Conclusion: Rice supply chain performance cannot be improved through separate interventions. An integrated approach combining quality, technology, and distribution is the most effective strategy for improving system efficiency and stability. Originality: This research contributes in the form of an integrated dynamic system model that is able to identify leverage points and support the formulation of rice supply chain policies in non-production center areas.