Can concentrated institutional provision catalyze land-use transition? Direct and spillover effects of organic product certification zones in China

The transition of agricultural land use toward organic farming is often hindered by weak market trust, limited producer organization, and inadequate environmental governance. This study examines whether targeted institutional intervention can catalyze such transition, using China’s National Organic Product Certification Demonstration Zone program as a quasi-natural experiment. With a balanced provincial panel (2013–2019) and a PSM-informed spatial Durbin difference-in-differences (PSM-informed SDM-DID) model, we estimate direct effects, spatial spillovers (via three alternative weight matrices), dynamic responses, and transmission channels. The original results suggest that establishing a demonstration zone is associated with a higher share of organic farmland in the host province and with positive spillovers to neighboring provinces, although the dynamic pattern is supported primarily by the queen-contiguity specification rather than uniformly across matrices. By strengthening the credibility of organic certification, the program may also address food safety concerns and consumer trust that constrain organic food markets. The evidence is consistent with four complementary channels (government-backed certification of food safety and quality, producer organization, environmental regulation, and industrial agglomeration) that may facilitate land-use transformation. These findings are suggestive rather than conclusive. Concentrated institutional provision may nonetheless help catalyze land-use transition where market foundations are weak, while highlighting the need for cross-regional coordination of place-based agricultural policies.