Bluer than expected: Fan passion and affective forecasting among Toronto Blue Jays fans throughout the 2025 World Series

The Toronto Blue Jays suffered a heartbreaking defeat in the 2025 Major League Baseball World Series. In this study, we administered surveys to 427 Blue Jays fans before and after the World Series to understand more about how accurate fans were in predicting their affective reactions to the loss. Our results revealed that (a) fans tended to underestimate how badly they felt after the loss; (b) the accuracy of affective forecasting depended on whether it was assessed absolutely or relatively; (c) when examining absolute affective forecasting accuracy, fans struggled to predict the extent to which they would savor past team successes despite the loss, though we did not find any evidence that fans tended to overestimate or underestimate savoring; and (d) levels of fan harmonious and obsessive passion showed weak and inconsistent associations with affective forecasting accuracy. The results contribute to the literature on affective forecasting and to our understanding of fan (in)accuracy in predicting future feelings.